What are the views of the IPCC Process by the Skeptics?
Very Few Scientists. Few scientists are actually involved in writing the materials, perhaps a few dozen. Usually there is one real leader, a Chair or Co-Chair and 2 or 3 titular co-chairs that often are present to provide balance for the developing nations. Because of skill or language barriers they may not be greatly involved. Lead Authors are usually involved in just one piece of the section or chapter. These few people, depending on the breadth of the chapter, prepare the first and subsequent drafts and the Executive Summary that feeds into the SPM, long before the draft chapters have been through national reviews. Even here, the Co-Chairs decide which inputs are to be accepted, or make recommendations that usually are sustained, during plenary sessions. Yes, thousands of scientists review the IPCC documents, but usually only those parts that impinge on their own expertise, which is usually quite narrow.
- Falsification of Data. With the advent of ClimateGate (hacked emails among key IPCC modelers and data gurus), this is a new point of contention. What many suspected for a long time when they couldn’t replicate IPCC results, and could not access the IPCC-used data, seems to be true, at least to them. The fallout could be immense. One thing is certain, we now know how the Medieval Warm Period was surpressed to make the current warmth appear “unprecedented” and how the present stabilization (or perhaps cooling) has been hidden. From: Phil Jones To: ray bradley ,mann@XXXX, mhughes@XXXX Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000 Cc: k.briffa@XXX.osborn@XXXX Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm, Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or first thing tomorrow. I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick [This is how the Medieval warmth was hidden] of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the [present] decline. Mike’s series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998. Thanks for the comments, Ray. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone XXXX School of Environmental Sciences Fax XXXX University of East Anglia. Comment: whether or not “trick” was merely a “technique”, it in fact made the warm period disappear. From skeptic viewpoints, the investigations largely clearing those at the core of the scandal, was preordained by the selection of investigators. Also see Our Climate Change and ClimateGate Positions.
ClimateGate Articles:- Washington Post: In e-mails, science of warming is hot debate
- BBC News: Climate e-mail hack ‘will impact on Copenhagen summit’
- Wall Street Journal: Climategate: Science Is Dying – Science is on the credibility bubble
- Science: Stolen E-mails Turn Up Heat on Climate Change Rhetoric
- Overstatement of Risks and Impacts. We know from the paleo record that the Earth routinely goes through climate swings greater than IPCC projects, yet IPCC does not go far enough in correcting overstatements in its own documents and in those of the press. There will be winners and losers, but always we hear only of the losses. Balance is missing. Things will be different, but not necessarily worse. For example, sea level rise has been happening since the end of the last ice age, and there is little evidence of any significant acceleration, yet most people believe that global warming will flood all coastal areas. The areas may flood, just as Georges Bank is now deep beneath the Atlantic, if this unusually long period in between ice ages continues and we see warmth as great as the last interglacial, but flooding won’t be caused by human-derived warming, although it may contribute. Another example is the great numbers of reports about Antarctica warming (IPCC assessment). The Antarctic is now warming. Part is due to the darkening of the ice, making it like the Arctic. Darkening is from soot and animal poo, feeding a purplish mold.
- Too Many People are Excluded or Their Input not Valued. This includes astronomers and geologists. Some times the exclusion is real or just perceived. Over time this tends to make the inside group of IPCC scientists more uniform in their beliefs while adding to the anti-IPCC consensus.
- Pressure is Placed on People Who Disagree with the IPCC Majority. This is evidenced by the attempted removal of at least 4 US state climatologists whose Governors have decided that conformance to the consensus view is required. The Policy Statement of their Association states that the natural variability in the climate system is very strong, that we lack the ability to predict greater than about 10 years into the future, and it is essential to collect data necessary to know if the climate is changing.
- The process leading to the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) is too Political. The Skeptics have more trouble with the SPM than the underlying reports. It is not too affectionately called “SPAM”. Even though the Scientists are present during finalization, and have sufficient authority to make sure they can live with it, many of the national delegations work to accomplish their policy objectives through the report. Some Skeptics have responded by developing an Independent SPM, based on the same underlying IPCC science documents, but with very different interpretations. An excellent report by the Earth Negotiations Bulletin sheds light on the process. It is recommended reading.
- “Participants discussed whether it would be clearer to state that warming of the climate system is “unequivocal” or “evident.” Participants agreed to state that warming is “unequivocal.” Canada, with Germany and Switzerland, suggested adding a reference to the accelerating trend of warming. China, New Zealand, and South Africa, supported by the Coordinating Lead Authors, opposed this, given the possibility of decadal variability, and the reference was not included in this section.
- On text noting high decadal variability in Arctic temperatures, Canada, supported by Norway, suggested removing a specific reference to a warm period observed from 1925 to 1945. The Coordinating Lead Authors explained that “climate skeptics” often point to this warm spell to question the IPCC for not acknowledging such warm spells. Participants agreed to keep the reference.”