Is Ocean Acidification Real? Is it Bad?
There is not a problem with increased CO2 in the water, leading to acidification (See our US Senate Testimony). There are 4 primary factors:
- First, laboratory work shows there is no basis to predict the demise of ocean shelled plants and animals. The animals above them in the food chain will still find food. The science actually indicates plants, crustaceans, and shelled algae plankton will be more successful. Since they are at or near the bottom of the food chain, this is good news.
- Second, the Earth has been this route before. The oceans have been far warmer and far colder and more acidic (2-20X) than is projected. The memory of these events is built into the genes of all species. Virtually all ecological niches have been filled at all times. If someone could demonstrate that there were no corals, clams, oysters, or shelled plankton (e.g., copepods, krill, certain algae) when there was double or triple the amount of CO2, we would be concerned. The opposite is true.
- Third, observational data in studies properly controlled for other variables (e.g., upwelling, rainfall, pollution, temperature, disease) show no harm. IPCC concluded (prior to the Iglesias-Rodriguez paper (positive impact)) that there is no observational evidence of oceanic changes due to acidification. There is also nothing conclusive in the recent research to indicate any reason for concern.
- Lastly, natural changes are greater and faster than those projected. Major warming, cooling, and pH changes in the oceans are a fact of life. Whether over a few years as in an El Niño, over decades as in the Pacific Oscillation, or over a few hours as a burst of upwelling appears or a storm brings acidic rainwater to an estuary. Despite severe and rapid changes that far exceed those in the scenarios, the biology adapts rapidly. The 0.1 change in ocean alkalinity since 1750 and the one degree F. rise since 1860 are but noise in this rapidly changing system. In the face of all these natural changes, whether over days or millennia, some species flourish while others diminish.
- Conclusion. The crustaceans responding favorably in research by Ries et al. (crabs, lobsters, shrimp) are probably similar to those at the base of the ocean food chain such as krill and copepods. Since they eat algae, which also responds favorably to CO2 increases (and warmer temperatures), it is likely there will be increased food in the sea. With no laboratory or observational evidence of biological disruption, we see no economic disruption of commercial and recreational fisheries, nor harm to marine mammals, sea turtles or any other protected species. Open-minded research is needed to sort it out.