In the prior inter-glacial period about 125,000 years ago, there was no summer ice at the North Pole and the sea level was 15 feet (5m) higher than today. Is this going to happen anyway? Is our temperature just naturally rising and if our own CO2 is helping it along, won’t temperature still rise, even when we stop breathing out CO2?
Let’s remember – In the history of the Earth, it is not normal for there to be ice at either pole. We are in a warm period of the Quaternary – the fourth ice age of the Earth, which began 2.58 million years ago – once the North Pole ice sheet formed. For the last million years there have been approximately 100,000 year cycles that have 80,000 years of cold (e.g., ice 2 miles thick in Chicago) and 12-20,000 of warmth (like today – the Holocene). (Milankovitch cycles – ) By the calendar, we are about at the end of this warm period, the Holocene, and it appears, visually, that we are in the cone of uncertainty for a switchover to glaciation. The glaciation left fitfully (start and stop), with full acceleration 8,000 years ago. but it started breakup about 20,000 years ago. This should be the point for calculating the coming glaciation. Beware – the CO2 models don’t include these Milankovitch solar forcing mechanisms and most of the other important factors causing warming. Also be aware that the CO2 warming crowd have infiltrated the Wiki sites and modified the science to conform to their agenda. When there is no longer any ice at either pole, the ice age will be over and the Earth will have returned to normal. IPCC 2007 reports the prior inter-glacial warmth was driven by orbital mechanics (Milankovitch Cycles) “that are not present today”. Perhaps they didn’t check. Nevertheless, this prior warmth tells us much about what the true impacts will likely be because nearly all the plant and animal species on Earth now were present then also. We need to be careful. The orbital mechanics are very much present and at their maximum contribution for a warm period (the Holocene). There are 3 major parts to the Milankovitch Cycles as explained in the link above: orbital eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession (wobble). At present the orbital eccentricity is nearly at the minimum of its cycle, axial tilt is in the middle of its range, and for precession, the Earth is at perihelion (closest point) very close to the winter solstice. To me, all this points to cooling for the next 80,000 years or so. We are not talking of trivial changes. The wobble is so great that it changes the “North Star” from Polaris to Vega. Switchover to glaciation and out of it is not gradual, but takes 2-3 years once the orbital parameters are in place.
Resource alarmists believe we will soon run out of fossil fuels. As soon as this happens, it seems, prices will rise and the CO2 problem will simply go away as plants clear out the CO2, that presently seems to be getting ahead of their ability to remove it. The GCMs (Global Circulation (or Climate) Models) knew of magnificent petroleum reserves hidden from the prophets of doom, even before fracking came along to delay “Peak Oil”. The projection to the end of the century ranges from sharp reductions to zero output of oil and gas. The reserves of coal are much greater and production will peak later. For most coal producing countries, coal output is in steady decline. Shortages will drive prices making recovery of presently marginal sources and types of fossil fuels feasible. But, it is all a matter of time before CO2 production from all fossil sources declines. The upheaval to society will likely surpass even the most extreme visions of global warming impacts. In March 2008, the price of coal had risen 50% over six months, and the upheavel was documented by the Washington Post. In June 2008, BP released its well respected Review of World Energy. This report says “The world has ample resources, with more than 40 years of proven oil reserves, 60 years of natural gas and 130 years of coal.” In the subsequent years, through fracking and other tehnologies, we have developed better ways to find and extract fossil fuels and prices have fallen, causing great hardship to producing companies and nations. It is good to remember that all the CO2 being added to the atmosphere was put in the ground by plants. It ALL was in the atmosphere before it was “breathed” by the plants and sequestered. Humans will never be able to fully restore the original CO2-rich atmosphere that existed before the evolution of plants, or since the biblical days of creation. There is so much available oil that in the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, the price of oil was negative for several days.