- The IPCC Reports Suggest There Will be More Losers than Winners with Warming. The IPCC process includes many unlikely scenarios. These worst-case estimates also have associated impacts, from benign to worst-case. Thus we get the 5% worst impacts that have a 5% chance of happening (a combined 0.25% likelihood) equally discussed with benign changes that are reasonable to expect. By the time summaries are written, and press releases, only the bad effects are presented. This leads to a gross exaggeration of the problems.
- Global Warming Will Actually Have More Winners then Losers. Throughout the history of human life, the Earth’s livability has always been better when the climate has been warmer than cooler. Human populations have expanded the most when the Earth warmed and turned greener, whether during the middle ages or during the last 2 decades. Whether it is a fish in the ocean, a shrimp in an aquaculture pond, or a bean on a vine, it will grow faster when it is warmer, all things being equal. Humans will be quick to take advantage of a warmer climate and to adjust if it gets too warm in an area. More crops grow where it is warm or hot than in frozen ground, and CO2 is a primary food of plants – basic facts that seem forgotten. NASA satellites show that the Earth has become 6% greener as the world has warmed from 1988 to 2000: “Our study (NASA 2003) proposes climatic changes as the leading cause for the increases in plant growth over the last two decades, with lesser contribution from carbon dioxide fertilization and forest re-growth” . Further, a May 2007 Nature paper shows that precipitation increases 6.5% per degree C rise, not the 1-3% used in models, making the Earth 3X wetter than models forecast. Deserts, as is known for prior warm periods, will be wetter, not drier. In the warm coastal farm lands near Guayaquil, Ecuador (near the equator) are many greenhouses, and in the cooler elevations, they are everywhere. This makes it clear how warming might be good for agriculture and certainly better than cooling.
- More People Die from the Cold than From Heat and no Place on Earth is too Hot for Humans. In Europe, more than 200,000 people die from excess heat while 1.5 million people die from excess cold (Source: Lomborg 2007), a point left out of most assessments. For the US, the net lower death count from global warming in 2050 is estimated at 174,000 per year (Citation in Lomborg 2007).
- The climate cooling scare of the 1970s was (and still is) real. Some of the materials were condensed by the CIA and were kept classified. See the left margin for links. In a just found (Dec 09) CIA cooling report: “The western world’s leadlng climatologists have confirmed reports of a detrimental global climatic change. The stability of most nations is based upon a dependable source of food, but this stability will not be possible under the new cllmatic era. A forecast by the University of Wisconsin projects that the Earth’s climate is returning to that of the neo·boreal era (1600-1850) – an era of drought, famine, and political unrest in the western world.” (August 1974)