Global Warming and Data
Virtually all scientists agree that the Earth has warmed a small amount since the year 1000 or, if you choose, since 1850, when instrumented temperature records became reasonably accurate and distributed in key areas of the world. An increasing number believe that any warming is so small it is indistinguishable from the noise in the environmental data sets, and that the data have not been properly adjusted for such things as urban heat island effects (are the city temps warmer than the suburbs where you live? Has the city grown since 1850? Have the runways increased near the temp gage at your airport since 1920?), and instrument calibration. This is particularly true of the global data set, even though “urbanization has caused regional increases in temperature that exceed those measured on a global scale, leading to urban heat islands as much as 12°C hotter than their surroundings“. Most scientists agree that warming is better than cooling and many believe CO2 provides important enhancements for forests and agriculture, even while also believing we should not be fouling our nest.
CO2, Warming Versus Cooling
Our site makes every effort to present the true science of climate change. When the news broke of the Arctic ice being at its 30 year low in 2007, the same source (U. of Illinois) reported the Antarctic at its record high, but this was not reported in the media. To show the imbalance, as one reads in the popular press, we have created a companion site that presents the evidence for global cooling, just as most newspapers and alarmists present only the science that supports warming. There are many reasons to be cautious about accepting CO2 as the causative agent if there really is warming. This is highlighted by 2 papers published in March 2008. Scafetta and West showed that up to 69% of observed warming is from the sun and Ramanathan and Carmichael show that soot has 60% of the warming power of CO2. They claim both factors are underappreciated by IPCC. Many scientists believe the temperature changes are more dependent on the sun than CO2, similar to the relationship in your home with your furnace. The soot may well explain much of the Arctic melting, as it has recently for Asian glaciers. We believe soot in the Northern Hemisphere is a larger player than CO2 in causing loss of Arctic snow and ice and glaciers everywhere. in 2022 we have published a peer-reviewed paper on the importance of soot in climate modeling.
Does CO2 cause temperature rise
It is generally accepted that the Earth has been much warmer than today, for example, in the time of the dinosaurs (the mid-cretaceous period) when the CO2 was 2 to 4 times greater than today (NOAA). More recently, in the prior period between ice ages, just 125,000 years ago, the Earth also was much warmer than today and the sea level much higher – by about 13 to 20 feet (4 to 6 meters) (IPCC). The primary driver of the past climate shifts is believed to be orbital mechanics and solar variability, with some contribution from Earth geophysical processes, such as volcanic eruptions. It is also known that mankind’s contribution to CO2 is just a small percent (3%) of the total amount and that the total is very small – there is 23.6 times more argon (0.00934) in the atmosphere than CO2 (0.000407. The Earth’s ability to absorb CO2 has apparently been underestimated and the climate models need revision per the 31 December 2009 publication of work by Wolfgang Knorr that shows “No Rise of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Fraction in Past 160 Years” (a seminal study). Lastly, we know that the Earth’s temperature and the level of CO2 rise and fall roughly together, but it is not clear (not proven) whether this is cause and effect by either variable. In a first attempt (Hadley-chart) to use a CO2 – based model to predict temperatures, the results are not impressive at all and are exactly opposite observations.
Modelers and Non-modelers ways studying Global Warming
The cause of the temperature rise, and therefore the future course, is settled only within the consensus group of scientists. This is based on work of computer modelers, believing their increasingly complex models show the cause is due to man’s activities and that there will be increasing temperatures according to how much additional greenhouse gases are emitted. There are many other scientists who are non-modelers, many with backgrounds as atmospheric physicists, climatologists, engineers, meteorologists, and paleo-climatologists, who do not believe the primary cause is mankind, although this could be part of it. These scientists and the people who follow them are often called climate change skeptics or even deniers. Most of these scientists believe that the sun, and/or orbital mechanics are at the root of the warming (if any), but that other factors are also at work. Among scientists and concerned citizens are thse who believe that the link between CO2 and warming is the last great hope to decrease the pollution inherent in the burning of fossil fuels. This leads them to rebel at any science, or any statements, that diminishes their ability to foster a reduction in fossil fuel usage. To help separate fact from fiction, an explanation of these thoughts is included here, along with links to these materials.
Where to get data?
The Hadley prediction chart and the observation chart below are from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, which is well respected for its historical databases maintained at the global level, and which are used in IPCC assessments. See the Hadley composite charts for 1860 to present by month, year and quarter by hemisphere. Note that “global” warming is greatest in the Northern hemisphere. Links to similar charts, but all slightly different with different assumptions or algorithms to fill in missing or sparse data, are provided in the left margin.
The Japan Met. Agency (JMA) site is recommended because it is interactive and allows you to query the data base. For example, go to the JMA site and try different months, such as August and September. This will confirm the IPCC models that predict more warming will occur during the winter months than the summer. We don’t know if this true. Certainly, polar sea ice is greatest and near long term averages in the respective winter months.
How to interpret temperature?
This chart looks ominous until put into the context that the average temperature for 1901-2000 is 13.9C (57.0F), so we are talking about a change from about 0.7 deg.C per century. Scientifically, we should use absolute temperatures, which would add an additional 273 C (460 F) degrees. In this context the increase is about 0.3 %. As seen below, this increase since the mid 1800s is similar to that since the year 1000, although IPCC says the present temperature is likely higher.
Greenland ice cores indicate that the start of the instrumented data (thermometers) coincides with a cold period in the northern hemisphere and that at the site of a well-studied ice core (Global Cooling-Doomsday Called Off), the temperature in the mid 1800s was the coldest in 8,000 years.
For the USA, the trend is less pronounced. NOAA: “The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for September 2017 was the fourth highest for the month of September in the NOAA global temperature dataset record, which dates back 138 years to 1880. The year-to-date global temperature was second-warmest on record. In 2022 the temperature can be seen to be about the same as during the 1930s.
Russian Academicians believe major cooling is imminent. The January 2009 PRAVDA ice-age article is likely vetted by them and the IPCC co-chair.
As the number of stations (often rural) has fallen the temperature has risen in an inverse relationship, suggesting the Urban Heat Island effect is the key component of any rise.
